Strategic agri-sector stewardship is essential

In an earlier post I highlighted the likely scramble for raw materials over next decade by a small group of upstream and downstream global and national oligopolies to control the pool of agri-commodities. This brings into sharp focus the need for New Zealand farmers to actively participate in the value chain beyond the farm gate if they wish to maximise prices and maintain a fair share of the supply chain value generated.

Given recent world population estimates, it is not surprising that New Zealand is experiencing heightened foreign direct investment interest in our agriculture sector and we do have to be mindful of the need to strategically deploy the physical and productive resources of one of the few segments of our economy where we are truly competitive on the international stage. The quality of stewardship (not just in the context of the individual ‘farm’ but, more importantly, at a policy level) of our natural agricultural resources is critical to New Zealand’s long term prospects. This means responding ‘strategically’ to what will likely be an ever increasing number of foreign investors lining up to buy our productive land or stakes in the downstream agricultural value chain.

Foreign ownership of land has been a rather hot topic of late – with interest heightened by the Crafar Farms and South Canterbury Finance debacles and media headlines like “Land grab or boost for NZ?” It has never been easy for any non New Zealand resident to buy rural property (at scale here) without demonstrating that the transaction will benefit New Zealand. The Overseas Investment Act represents a pretty tough obstacle for any prospective offshore investor. What seems to be lacking from the debate is how we ensure that both the legislation is implemented effectively and our political appointees exercise clear strategic insight and direction to those charged with adjudicating on applications (i.e. the Overseas Investment Office).

It does seem rather short-sighted to sell any productive land to overseas investors. Despite strenuous efforts by successive governments over the past 30 years to diversify New Zealand’s export base, our economy is still largely reliant on exporting agricultural commodities. Whilst this is not an ideal situation, the fact is, by geographic location, we enjoy some distinct comparative advantages and our farms are arguably the most efficient in the world. We grow products the world wants and we grow them very well. It follows then that it would be strategically devoid for any government to allow the gradual erosion of one of the few truly internationally competitive advantages we have as a nation through incremental consenting of applications to buy productive land.

So where does that leave current owners of rural assets who want to sell up? It leaves them with exactly the same options they have long had under the legislation governing foreign ownership. If foreign investors are keen to invest in New Zealand, there are more strategic ways this can be facilitated. By way of example, foreign investors could acquire a minority interest in a property or business, or they could acquire a leasehold interest in the land. In this way, access to foreign capital remains available as needed, but ownership (or at least majority control) remains local. We need to think creatively about how we can manage property rights and attract capital to retain control for our future generations. The major religious institutions didn’t accumulate their massive wealth by selling property. They leased it for productive use by others. New Zealand take note!

World population underpins agri-sector values

The decision, in late September 2011, by rating agencies Fitch and Standard & Poor’s to downgrade New Zealand credit risk from AA+ to AA took many market commentators by surprise. Their prognosis of the prospects for the New Zealand economy, based on our dependence on agricultural commodities, is shallow. It is more indicative of entrenched structural problems in the US and European financial systems than our long term economic prospects.

Any farmer who thinks the current world economic crisis means the golden days may be over need look no further than the most recent global population forecasts from the United Nations.

The planet’s population will exceed 7 billion this October and is forecast to increase +40% to +10 billion by 2100. The most dramatic changes are expected to be at a national level and New Zealand exporters of agricultural and other products need to be mindful of the likely shifting market dynamics.

China’s huge population is actually forecast to fall from 1.35 billion to circa 950 million between now and 2100. The population of Sub-Saharan Africa, at circa 856 million, is currently roughly the same size as Europe and about 20% that of Asia. The UN estimates it could be three times the size of Europe by 2050 and 75% the size of Asia by 2100. The population forecasts for Africa would make it the fastest growing region by far. The biggest mover in absolute numbers is predicted to be India – where the population is expected to reach 1.7 billion by about 2050 before leveling out at about 1.55 billion by 2100.

The numbers are truly mind-boggling and whilst the margin for error in the predictions is big, they serve to focus attention on the likely intense global demand for agri-sector originated products and where that demand will come from.

At almost exactly the same time Fitch and Standard & Poor’s made their downgrade announcements, leading agricultural financier Rabobank released predictions that the world’s food supply will need to increase substantially over coming decades to meet population driven demands. Rabobank said that “In the next 40 to 50 years, the food and agricultural sector will need to double food supply with access to only about half the current land, water and mineral resources.” This view is also shared by Westpac Bank which sees some short term price volatility due to global financial turmoil but good long-term prospects for New Zealand dairy and meat exports based on the continued strength of Asian economies.

Most people won’t notice a lot of difference from the credit downgrades, apart from a possible increase in the cost of borrowing and decrease in the value of the NZ dollar, and they will be of little concern to those taking a long-term view of the economy. New Zealand should be more concerned about the changing global market dynamics – as countries scramble to secure food supplies or control the value chain. Rabobank says that “The next decade will be dominated by a battle for raw materials, with a small group of upstream and downstream oligopolies controlling the pool of agri-commodities.” This highlights the need for New Zealand farmers to actively participate in the value chain beyond the farm gate if they wish to maximise prices and maintain a fair share of the supply chain value generated.

Against a backdrop of difficult monetary conditions, commodity price volatility, global financial sector turmoil and widespread unemployment in developed countries, New Zealand agricultural, forestry and fisheries exports performed strongly. For the period ending 31 March 2011 total agri-sector export receipts were up 16% on the 2010 year – comprising 71% of total merchandised exports. The biggest growth in export receipts has been dairy products (butter, cream, whole-milk powder, skim-milk, butter-milk, casein and related products) which have collectively increased 26% in the year to 31 March 2011. Coming in second and third, in terms of export growth, was forestry products (panels, logs and wood chips, pulp, paper, sawn timber and other related products) and wool products – which respectively grew 22% and 20% over the same period.

The high performing segments in agri-product export growth for the year ending 31 March 2011 are; (1) whole-milk powder at 53%, (2) butter/cream/anhydrous milk fat at 38%, (3) logs/wood chips at 38%, (4) hides/leather/dressed skins at 31% and (5) raw wool at 25%.

The statistics in the table below show the overall bullish growth in agri-export values for the full year ending 31 March 2011 year has continued for the 12 months ending June 2011.

Primary sector exports ($millions) 2011 Y/Y%
Dairy products $13,193 25%
Meat products $5,627 7%
Forestry products $4,527 17%
Horticultural products $3,374 3%
Miscl. agricultural & food products $2,121 14%
Fisheries $1,561 11%
Wool products $908 23%
Live animals $218 14%
Totals $31,529 16%

Agri-Recap Spring 2011

Our Spring 2011 REACP issue highlights the imminent global population surge up to 2100 and implications for our agricultural commodities and value-added products. Population estimates released this year from the United Nations indicate a potential increase over the balance of this century of +40% to +10 billion. This will place significant pressure on agricultural production, available land and food supplies and commodity prices. There is already a scramble by international food oligopolies for control of the agricultural value chain and New Zealand needs to strategically manage both ownership and stewardship of its natural resources to avoid eroding the only real (internationally) competitive advantage it has as a nation. Foreign direct investment pressure will become a big issue. Against a backdrop of difficult monetary conditions, commodity price volatility, global financial sector turmoil and widespread unemployment in developed countries, New Zealand agricultural and forestry exports have performed remarkably well. REACP traverses the latest agri-sector export performance data and provides commentary on the forestry, viticulture, dairy, sheep, beef and deer sub-sectors and related property market data.

A copy of Agri-Recap can be downloaded by clicking the image or link below.

RECAP Spring 2011

National Infrastructure Plan 2011

The Minister for Infrastructure’s foreword in the ‘National Infrastructure Plan 2011′ draws attention to the critical role of infrastructure in our economy – by highlighting its importance following the Canterbury earthquakes.

The 2011 plan follows from policy work completed in 2010 and the Minister summarises Government priorities in five key areas:

  1. The Canterbury re-build.
  2. Investment in Auckland.
  3. Better management of social infrastructure assets.
  4. Investment in land transport to support New Zealand commodity exports.
  5. Improved performance measurement.
The report itself highlights five “strategic opportunities” being:
  1. Transport – supporting growth in Auckland and ensuring the overall network is efficient.
  2. Telecommunications – public/private partnerships and greater efficiency.
  3. Energy – improved information base and regulatory framework.
  4. Water – better management practices and partnerships.
  5. Social – increased sharing of services and alternative funding approaches.
The Government hopes to capitalise on these strategic opportunities by implementing a three year action plan focusing on the following:
  • Publish a 10 years ‘Capital Intentions Plan’.
  • Improve understanding of infrastructure demand management and pricing.
  • Improve access to information.
  • Develop performance indicators for each sector (public and private assets).
  • Improve regional strategic infrastructure planning.
  • Improve scenario modeling to better predict investment needs.
  • Learn from the Christchurch diaster to improve infrastructure resilience.
  • Explore alternative funding options.
A full copy of the 2011 plan can be downloaded from the National Infrastructure Unit’s website at this link.
Source: National Infrastructure Unit

First ETS report card

The Emissions Trading Scheme (“ETS”) is New Zealand’s response to meeting its climate change responsibilities under Kyoto Protocol obligations. The Ministry for the Environment has released its first annual report on the ETS highlighting progress to date as follows:

  1. Forestry was the first sector to join the ETS – on 1-1-08.
  2. From 1-7-10, three more sectors (energy, industry and transport) faced an obligation to surrender units according to the level of their emissions.
  3. The additional sectors (comprising 38 business activities) established a tradable New Zealand carbon market.
  4. Most NZ businesses will not participate directly in the ETS, because it is designed to transfer the cost to those highest in the supply chain.
  5. The transition phase for the new entrants extends until the end of 2012 durting which time concessionary rules apply.
  6. One-off allocations to fisheries quota holders and owners of pre-1990 forest lands have been made by Government to compensate property losses.
  7. Businesses and foresters are factoring the price of carbon into their planning and passing this down to consumers.

A copy of the full report can be downloaded from the Ministry for the Environment’s website via this link.

Source: Ministry for the Environment